Paris trip for Hermes

#29,204
Please try to stay on topic. I realise because of the complexity of some of the posts members may veer off but in answer do not 'go there'.

For info and questions on US customs please post on the thread below: post https://forum.purseblog.com/threads/us-customs-discussion-airports-importing.905560/

or non-US destinations: https://forum.purseblog.com/threads/does-h-store-paris-wants-to-ship.605014/page-3

For questions relating to prices https://forum.purseblog.com/threads/reference-hermes-current-prices.102567/page-357

For traveling with boxes https://forum.purseblog.com/threads...me-hermes-boxes-when-traveling.1044553/page-5



I will leave this reminder as a sticky because tthis is often a thread that new members (or new Hermès lovers) post on - hopefully temporarily.
 
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#34,921
EmilyM111 said:
I’m a statistician and inclined to agree with you. SA would not have details of randomisation process (and anything that proceeds it, like cleaning out the data). Bearing in mind that the entries stop around 7.30pm and appointment notifications are sent 8-8.30pm, it’s unlikely it’s done manually.
I find from my daily job that people are unable to accept law of probability and seek patterns everywhere. I once wrote a post on the estimation of probabilities of independent trials (entries) but it’s been widely ignored and ppl kept discussing straight below it magic number of trials before the day they land in Paris or purchases in store to proceed the application. I can’t remember now exact numbers but probability of getting at least one appt in 30 days was very low, like 10%.
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Do you remember where your post is? I’d love to read it! Thanks for sharing your thoughts! 10%?! Ooof :shocked:
 
#34,922
jimmyshoogirl said:
Do you remember where your post is? I’d love to read it! Thanks for sharing your thoughts! 10%?! Ooof :shocked:
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I wrote it under my old login (not using it anymore as didn't want somebody I know IRL to read my stuff). The numbers of applicants vary, not sure what it is today (probably way more as it's post from 2021). And now I see I overdid it with the 10% in 30 days but I linked a calculator to play :smile: Let's treat this analysis with a pinch of salt- it's simplified and means to show that independent events with low probability don't sum to high likelihood (of getting appt) after many trials. I got rejected over last 4 days 4x :biggrin:

So while I guess we won't know for sure, wanted to chip in here as I read many times that there is some logic to not granting appts 10x in a row (or 5 or 2 etc).
I'm a statistician so approaching this from a probability perspective. If every day 4000 ppl applies for 80 spots (it was mentioned in this topic a few days ago), probability of getting an appointment on a given day is 0.02, while not getting it 0.98. It's not inconceivable that one might not get an appointment even after 10 days in a row (according to the third of the calculators on this page it's 82% chance). Of course I don't know whether there is a factor of previous spend or if one tried x times then gets it etc. - I assume independence of daily tries and it's very simplified analysis. Just wanted to share some food for thought. Unfortunately it's a very low SA availability that makes this so difficult.
 
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#34,924
EmilyM111 said:
I’m a statistician and inclined to agree with you. SA would not have details of randomisation process (and anything that proceeds it, like cleaning out the data). Bearing in mind that the entries stop around 7.30pm and appointment notifications are sent 8-8.30pm, it’s unlikely it’s done manually.
I find from my daily job that people are unable to accept law of probability and seek patterns everywhere. I once wrote a post on the estimation of probabilities of independent trials (entries) but it’s been widely ignored and ppl kept discussing straight below it magic number of trials before the day they land in Paris or purchases in store to proceed the application. I can’t remember now exact numbers but probability of getting at least one appt in 30 days was very low, like 10%.
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People don’t want low probably and prefer knowing tactics that would cheat or change the system. If people accepted this low probability, nobody would go to Paris and hope to get an appointment right then anymore! Or barely!
I only play the lottery when the amount is crazy high! LOL!
 
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#34,925
It’s higher chance to score a bag anywhere else than Paris. I was there last week and told the leather person “look I’m not even looking for a B or K, I just want a small bag for a Christmas gift, still she gave me the robotic answer: sorry we’re fully booked.” FSH was chaotic like a zoo on a public holiday.
In the end I got a different brand and it was a very pleasant shopping experience!

unless you are a VIP or know an SA, the chance of getting a bag without an appt is slim. There have been a few people who were given appt slots as walk-ins, idk what the tricks were.
 
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#34,926
stephbb9 said:
People don’t want low probably and prefer knowing tactics that would cheat or change the system. If people accepted this low probability, nobody would go to Paris and hope to get an appointment right then anymore! Or barely!
I only play the lottery when the amount is crazy high! LOL!
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I realise that haha. But you know, when SA share numbers of applicants (eg. xxx thousands per day), there is no escape from being disappointed. Unless we are very lucky or VIP.
To me, the truly disappointing situation is when the first thing SA says before you even open your mouth (as read in this thread) - 'No B/K/C today'. After you were so lucky to get appt haha. But it is, what it is.
 
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#34,927
Spouse got a lottery appointment for George V today. No B/Ks at all, so their 6pm appointment shifted to 1pm quickly. Hermes was very kind and accommodating, even though they were a few minutes late. They were offered quite a few options: Geta in Etoupe, Saut Hermes in Bleu Nuit, Constance 18 in Caban swift, 24/24 29 in gold, Roulis 23 in bleu nuit and black, and Della Cavalleria in Graphite. Evelyn’s and Verrou too. Sales associate was extremely understanding and patient. Unfortunately passed on all. None of them felt right for me.
 
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#34,928
LolaWhisp said:
Spouse got a lottery appointment for George V today. No B/Ks at all, so their 6pm appointment shifted to 1pm quickly. Hermes was very kind and accommodating, even though they were a few minutes late. They were offered quite a few options: Geta in Etoupe, Saut Hermes in Bleu Nuit, Constance 18 in Caban swift, 24/24 29 in gold, Roulis 23 in bleu nuit and black, and Della Cavalleria in Graphite. Evelyn’s and Verrou too. Sales associate was extremely understanding and patient. Unfortunately passed on all. None of them felt right for me.
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Thank you for sharing. I find it hard to believe though that they had no B/K at all when it was just 1pm!
 
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#34,929
LolaWhisp said:
Spouse got a lottery appointment for George V today. No B/Ks at all, so their 6pm appointment shifted to 1pm quickly. Hermes was very kind and accommodating, even though they were a few minutes late. They were offered quite a few options: Geta in Etoupe, Saut Hermes in Bleu Nuit, Constance 18 in Caban swift, 24/24 29 in gold, Roulis 23 in bleu nuit and black, and Della Cavalleria in Graphite. Evelyn’s and Verrou too. Sales associate was extremely understanding and patient. Unfortunately passed on all. None of them felt right for me.
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Those are some lovely offers, but you have to stay true to yourself and buy only what you love. It's good to hear that stock seems plentiful for non quota bags. I hope you find the bag of your dreams soon!
 
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#34,930
LolaWhisp said:
Spouse got a lottery appointment for George V today. No B/Ks at all, so their 6pm appointment shifted to 1pm quickly. Hermes was very kind and accommodating, even though they were a few minutes late. They were offered quite a few options: Geta in Etoupe, Saut Hermes in Bleu Nuit, Constance 18 in Caban swift, 24/24 29 in gold, Roulis 23 in bleu nuit and black, and Della Cavalleria in Graphite. Evelyn’s and Verrou too. Sales associate was extremely understanding and patient. Unfortunately passed on all. None of them felt right for me.
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Good for you for not just buying because you were offered those! Someone behind you probably was looking for one of those exact bags! Thank you for sharing!
 
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#34,935
jimmyshoogirl said:
For those of you that’s been recently What were the crowd in the stores like? Have they been super busy, low/high traffic?
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FSH was completely packed. In every department had to wait for an SA to help. Sevres was fairly free, never had to wait long or at all for an SA. George V was really packed, had to wait outside in line before even getting in, but IMO the SAs there were the loveliest and most helpful.
 
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