I mentioned to the person I talked to at the post office about how things seems to start moving after I've called, and she said she notices that happens when she hasn't even done anything yet! I confirmed with her that some of those things that look like scans are computer generated and aren't really scans, like the one that says "in transit to next facility."I've also had it happen (more than once) and I've asked the buyer(s) to give it a bit more time. In cases where there wasn't an eventual delivery scan, I've refunded. In other instances, having called the post office seemed to do something to make movement and items got delivered.
I'm still not sure how to do the refund. What I've done in the past is refund through paypal, and then do a cancellation through ebay. I'd had to pick buyer request in order to get my fees back and not get a defect. I don't know if I get a defect if she opens an INR claim.