Not a whole lot actually appreciates anymore unless it's mint and somewhat to very rare. I suppose if you consider inflation against the original retail, there can be appreciation on older bags that aren't strictly mint (I believe the first originally retailed in the 900-995 range? Can someone fact check me on this?), so an 01-05 first could sell for $1200-1700 depending on condition and rarity of the color/leather. Most ME city bags in new / like new condition are selling between $1500-$1700, but not enough have come to market yet to make it a very big pool to average. Although they have said ME is a LE bag, they've had too much success with it and run the style too many seasons now to truly call it LE, IMO... The more likely scenario --again jmo--I believe is that like all years, they will do different color runs and over time the more desirable colors or color/metal combinations that have been retired from production will retain their value the best, along with black, which is ubiquitous but always in demand. HTH!
Agree with this 100% .. alas, the resale on Balenciaga is NOT what it used to be! Why? .. very simple = Balenciaga used to produce a limited amount of bags in the "old days" ('01 thru '05). They started ramping up around '06, but then put the production on full-steam-ahead around '09/'10. As a result, the "uniqueness" of the brand, colors and the leather weren't there anymore. Just ask any of us 'old-timers' (and I'm not talking age here), and we'll all tell you that the hunt for those old bags was SERIOUS business as:
1. There were a lot less Bal Boutiques then
2. The brand was sold to a lot less retail outlets
3. There was a lot less bags produced
The only bags where one can still [potentially] make a profit, are those that are truly rare (color, hardware - like the pewter HW or the Giant 21 HW now) leather (Chevre, Caribou, Cameau or Croc).
With the over-production, there have been some MEGA-BUYS on eBay or other sites, and therefore, when one is presented with a large-$$$ amount on a bag, it makes you think twice. Sadly, just the way it is now ..