ReRe, I think that the mini crochet is TDF! When carried it will look like the first and fourth pictures, especially with you things weighting down the bag. The pancake look will only be apparent when you set the bag down... and not even then because your things will influence the shape of the bag carried and at rest. Will it match your wardrobe? - only you can make that determination. 40% off is great if it is the right bag for you!
With regard to wanting this after one day of receiving the matita belly: satisfaction is not satiation! I experience this all the time!
Unfortuately, I have missed the matita belly and the FW matita is not like this one, so I do not believe that a FW bag in Matita will work for me. According to Bryan and Belen - and several other SA's that I called looking for the matita belly a couple of weeks ago - it is gone here in the US... perhaps there is an SA that will do a worldwide search, but with the bag on sale they may not be able to transfer the bag to the US. My best guess is that there will be one or two will be eventually offered on eBay. I am numb to all this right now.
Back to your crochet dilemma - if you love it, get it while it is still available. And if on the small chance that it does not work for you, then you can return it to Saks, NM, BG - or wherever you bought it... which IMO is a real benefit!