I loved reading this thread. I work in finance and strategy in the consumer / retail space and "covered" luxury retail brands in a past life (how I first learned about Hermes, actually). Across almost any given brand, the top ~5-10% of buyers typically contribute to ~40-50% of sales. This could be a smaller household % contributing to a higher sales % for luxury brands where spend can be enormous, but that's a general guideline. Heavy buyers are a goldmine, and the path to growth is either 1) to increase household penetration by gaining new households that do not currently purchase your brand, or 2) push purchase occasions and spend per occasion up for your buyers so that ultimately your medium and light users close the gap to the heavy users and continue to maintain loyalty (with repeat rate typically calculated as someone who makes multiple purchases within any 52Wk period and lapsed buyers being buyers who do not return in a 52Wk period).
The "Hermes Game" is pretty perfectly curated to accomplish goal #2, and as someone adjacent to the industry, I love that Hermes has perfected this craft. Let's take someone who is shopping Hermes with hopes of receiving a coveted bag. Having this concept of "pre-spend" allows Hermes to build a customer base that shops across categories, which is highly lucrative. Even if this consumer gets a bag, lapses, and stops shopping the brand completely, their spend as a lapsed user is still relatively high from an absolute dollar basis. The gamification aspect is also very on trend right now. I joke that shopping at Hermes is almost akin to gambling. Due to the scarcity factor, you can't fully control what you will be offered, which adds a bit of excitement. So a consumer gets a bag, enjoys the little adrenaline rush of getting offered something known to be scarce, and experiences the excitement of the initial unboxing, not fully knowing what they will get. Will they want another bag and continue playing this game? A pretty good chance that yes, this would be the case.
Or maybe I'm projecting
But the ideal consumer for any brand is one that is highly loyal and highly sticky (price inelastic and won't leak to other brands with a price increase), which ultimately boils down to someone who genuinely loves and connects to the brand. While a consumer doesn't need to be a heavy user to get bag offers, customer lifetime value is an important metric and if you're loyal throughout many many years, that's hugely important. So I agree that loyalty to the brand and length of relationship plays a larger role than a "pre-spend ratio" at any given moment.
As long as demand is greater than supply, there is little reason to cater to consumers that will potentially lapse. And as long as demand is greater than supply, helped by social media, gamification, and scarcity factor, this is a business model that will continue crushing it. I am kind of all for it.