I am betting that Carly is one of the best-selling bags over the holidays. I think they might wait a bit before sending the most popular ones to outlet (leather and khaki sig) as long as they are still selling so well. They wouldn't have come out with the slim Carly unless they knew this bag was hot enough to sell in another version.
But all bags that are not limited and do not sell out eventually go to outlet, as is demonstrated by the 2006 Legacy line. It took a little while, but they went to outlet. The question is then having your timing right to get one before they sell out at outlet, too!