It's interesting to see how the next few years turn out.Seriously, I had already drew a line, because the economy is in terrible shape, and it does not look optimistic to me for the next 5 - 10 years, and I'm not that rich can put away $10,000 on a bag which may only can sell in hand for $5,000 if I need to turn it into cash quickly.
I'm not encomiast I only can make decision on what I see and how I feel, and I'm too old to put $10,000 on one single bag and hoping in 50 years it will triple it's value, to the end, I guess I'm too poor and too old for buying a Chanel bag at $10,000 or over $6,000 at this point.
I work as an investment professional so I follow the economy very closely: in the last 15 years (and my colleagues argues it's been this way since 1981 when rates peaked at 16%), the capital class have far outstripped the wage-earning class in terms of returns and economic gains. I call the capital class the people who make money with their money (ie investments, cash, stocks, etc.), and the wage class as the people who make money with labor. REAL wages in America have been flat for about that long (15 years).
It's created a lot of social unrest in society, and unfortunately there isn't much the government can do about it. The government only has very blunt instruments like the Fed, who can lower and raise interest rates and play with demand (but not supply). When they keep rates at near zero for over a decade, it made the rich richer. Think about 2022-21, when rates went negative and billionaires reached new heights of $200, $300 billion net worth. Previously unheard of numbers.
All that changed the last few months. Labor markets are strong, wage growth is strong, but the stock market and returns on capital are getting whacked by rate hikes. The WSJ calls it a richcession, not a recession. Personally, I think it is a good thing as we need society to work for everyone, not just the capital class, or else there are real consequences of social unrest. This is a recent 1.5 year phenomenon, so it's too early to call anything yet. But if it continues, I don't think it spells good news for these luxury brands.
When capital class get richer, ie someone goes from $1mm to $3mm of net worth, they buy more handbags and luxury, unnecessary goods. When wages go from $15 per hour to $18 per hour, that's probably a trigger to upgrade to better food sources, better housing, etc.
That's just the US, though. Asia is a huge market for these brands. China's economy is in the can / not doing well still, but there are emerging economies with elevating middle class. I wouldn't be surprised if growth in demand for these luxury goods taper off - there may still be growth, but not in the way it was the last decade. In which case, they may still be able to maintain these prices and even future increases, but they won't be seeing 5 people fighting for a $10k bag anymore, maybe it's just 2 or it's just 1 person.