A Casual Analysis of Price Increases in Lux Market - Would Love to Hear Others’ Thoughts!

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saralioness

Member
Aug 30, 2020
35
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I tried posting this in a Chanel group on FB that I’m a member of, but sadly it got deleted within 15 minutes and just as soon as comments started getting good. I’m not sure if this post is in violation of any TPF rules, but I certainly hope not as I am hoping to have an intelligent conversation around the price hikes we’ve been seeing across all the fashion houses and multiple industries outside of luxury/fashion in general. Plus all this sheltering in place and being off from work all week due to feeling under the weather gave me some time to actually think about some of this stuff so here goes...


After a bit of research today, here is my take on these price hikes: the pandemic is of course playing a huge role in this but what I wasn’t expecting to discover was how much influence China is having on the price increases. It’s not a secret that Chanel prices are different in various countries but they are typically most expensive in China, sometimes by as much as 30-40%! This is true of all luxury brands’ pricing strategies across the board - not just Chanel’s. Despite these luxury goods being the most expensive in China, the Chinese market makes up one-third of these fashion houses’ revenues each year.



Let me say that again: China accounts for roughly 33-35% of total revenue worldwide for all luxury brands. One country vs. the rest of the world - that’s a lot of buying power for a single country!



In addition to the statement above, also consider the fact that before the pandemic, LOTS of Chinese citizens were traveling to other parts of the world to make luxury purchases at cheaper prices. The volume of revenues from these purchases (Chinese travelers buying outside of their home country) is NOT included in the one-third of global revenues attributed to the Chinese market. That means that China actually contributes more than 1/3 of global revenues, likely significantly more.



As we all know, the pandemic has negatively impacted the global economy, supply chains, COGS (cost of goods sold), and international travel. This has had a domino effect on all businesses, putting most in a position of deciding between only 2 options:



  1. Whether they can and will try to survive until things get better
  2. Whether they should cut their losses and close now


Due to the disparity in prices that already existed amongst countries/markets pre-COVID, many fashion houses have been able to essentially predict that they can, in fact, “get away” with these price hikes because again - despite their products being the most expensive in China, the Chinese market, geographically, still made up one-third of their total global revenues. So even if they didn’t raise prices in China but raised them everywhere else, the amount of customers they lost due to price increases would likely be a “wash” because they’d still be earning the same amount of revenue, just with less customers. But it’s actually not a “wash” for them if the fashion houses can get away with this because many of them also raise prices to ensure that they maintain a certain level of exclusivity or rarity. Thus, the impact of these price hikes ends up being a net POSITIVE effect on the brands’ perceived value. Keep in mind that value does not equate to price or cost; this is most obvious in the second-hand retail market where certain brands and their products are able to retain or even increase their value irrespective of its age or use.



Conclusion/TLDR:

Closing the gap in prices of luxury products between China and the rest of the world, while in the long-term might not be something that many companies would want to “give up”, in the short-term it does give companies a way to continue operations and production with a certain level of confidence that they’ll still be able to maintain similar revenues for relatively low risk. With the halt of international travel, price increases also forces most everyone to make their purchases in their respective home countries. Where this is the biggest advantage for companies is in none other than China where its residents are already used to buying at the highest prices and can’t travel outside the country to make luxury purchases elsewhere. The bottom line, in my opinion (based on only cursory research), is that these price hikes will continue so long as China’s consumer market continues to buy luxury products despite price hikes. With the Chinese market making up a third of the luxury industry’s revenues, as long as price hikes don’t result in revenue losses overall, losing customers in other countries is counterintuitively desired because luxury brands by design want to prevent their products from becoming overly distributed to avoid diluting the exclusivity of their brand.



What we can do about it:

This may seem like a lost cause, but 2/3 is still greater than 1/3. If the rest of us can (and actually do) band together and boycott Chanel, LVMH, Kering, and other fashion houses, we actually do have enough power to influence price setting. Louis Vuitton and Gucci have lowered prices on evergreen products in certain countries in the past as a result of economic factors, so it’s not outrageous to think that a boycott could actually work. A boycott by the consumers that constitute two-thirds of their revenues absolutely would send a message to the fashion houses that they’d better stop with the price hikes unless they want to start imagining life with only a third of their current revenues. Trust and believe that those prices will start to come back down REAL QUICK. The REAL question is: Can we get everyone who isn’t geographically inside China to boycott luxury products during the pandemic (and honestly beyond because this is getting ridiculous)? I genuinely would love to hear others’ thoughts on this because if we really could get enough traction to do this, we could actually make this a real initiative. An initiative that thanks to the pandemic, gave rise to a protest in its own right in response to the realization and against the revelation of a shamefully unhealthy over-reliance upon a single country, China, in yet another industry where it “hurts” our own economy. Side note: I put quotation marks around the word hurts because I do realize that this is a first world problem during a global pandemic and other natural disasters, but hey, we’re still allowed to have feelings about this one way or the other. PS. This post is not meant to shame China or its people in any way, but rather the decisions made by company executives of all types and from all countries to rely too heavily upon one country for anything at all, whether it be their total revenues, outsourced labor, or cheap raw materials, etc.
 
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I’m confused. Are you boycotting the brands until they bring their prices down? How low would they need to get for you to unboycott them? Do you want to buy these brands or not? What is your purpose for purchasing them? You can always buy less and end up spending the same on one bag as you would on two. Or buy from cheaper brands. Instead of boycotting and releasing negative energy into the world, why don’t you turn it into something positive and support smaller less expensive brands?

Let luxury brands do what they do, and you buy what you want to buy.

As to answer your question, no I’m not boycotting any luxury brands for raising prices. I’m pausing luxury spending for the time being because it doesn’t feel quite right. But there are still a few pieces from Chanel, Hermes, and some other brands I’d like to add to my collection.

Now if a luxury brand came out against BLM or some other stance I oppose strongly, then I may need to take a stand with a boycott.

As for why your post got deleted, I’m going to take a guess that maybe it’s because TPF’s existence is based on people buying luxury brands. I would assume they aren’t fans of a broad luxury boycott.
 
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If you haven't read Deluxe, I recommend you do. I think you will find it interesting, even though it it more than a few years old at this point.

I think the most important thing that you are neglecting in your post is how much luxury companies are motivated by growth and stock prices. And most of that growth is coming from the developing markets in China, India, and Russia - the places where lost of new money and wealth is being created. America and Western Europe are stagnant compared to these new markets. There is no growth and they have reached saturation in terms of market share and revenue.

So the question becomes, where will these brands find new growth. Bags, makeup, and perfume are the high profit items for any brand. If bags slow down, that Chanel nail polish still has a lot of appeal. And what about emerging markets in Latin America and Africa - these places are the next wave when China is over. Grow, grow, grow! That is all that matters now.
 
I tried posting this in a Chanel group on FB that I’m a member of, but sadly it got deleted within 15 minutes and just as soon as comments started getting good. I’m not sure if this post is in violation of any TPF rules, but I certainly hope not as I am hoping to have an intelligent conversation around the price hikes we’ve been seeing across all the fashion houses and multiple industries outside of luxury/fashion in general. Plus all this sheltering in place and being off from work all week due to feeling under the weather gave me some time to actually think about some of this stuff so here goes...


After a bit of research today, here is my take on these price hikes: the pandemic is of course playing a huge role in this but what I wasn’t expecting to discover was how much influence China is having on the price increases. It’s not a secret that Chanel prices are different in various countries but they are typically most expensive in China, sometimes by as much as 30-40%! This is true of all luxury brands’ pricing strategies across the board - not just Chanel’s. Despite these luxury goods being the most expensive in China, the Chinese market makes up one-third of these fashion houses’ revenues each year.



Let me say that again: China accounts for roughly 33-35% of total revenue worldwide for all luxury brands. One country vs. the rest of the world - that’s a lot of buying power for a single country!



In addition to the statement above, also consider the fact that before the pandemic, LOTS of Chinese citizens were traveling to other parts of the world to make luxury purchases at cheaper prices. The volume of revenues from these purchases (Chinese travelers buying outside of their home country) is NOT included in the one-third of global revenues attributed to the Chinese market. That means that China actually contributes more than 1/3 of global revenues, likely significantly more.



As we all know, the pandemic has negatively impacted the global economy, supply chains, COGS (cost of goods sold), and international travel. This has had a domino effect on all businesses, putting most in a position of deciding between only 2 options:



  1. Whether they can and will try to survive until things get better
  2. Whether they should cut their losses and close now


Due to the disparity in prices that already existed amongst countries/markets pre-COVID, many fashion houses have been able to essentially predict that they can, in fact, “get away” with these price hikes because again - despite their products being the most expensive in China, the Chinese market, geographically, still made up one-third of their total global revenues. So even if they didn’t raise prices in China but raised them everywhere else, the amount of customers they lost due to price increases would likely be a “wash” because they’d still be earning the same amount of revenue, just with less customers. But it’s actually not a “wash” for them if the fashion houses can get away with this because many of them also raise prices to ensure that they maintain a certain level of exclusivity or rarity. Thus, the impact of these price hikes ends up being a net POSITIVE effect on the brands’ perceived value. Keep in mind that value does not equate to price or cost; this is most obvious in the second-hand retail market where certain brands and their products are able to retain or even increase their value irrespective of its age or use.



Conclusion/TLDR:

Closing the gap in prices of luxury products between China and the rest of the world, while in the long-term might not be something that many companies would want to “give up”, in the short-term it does give companies a way to continue operations and production with a certain level of confidence that they’ll still be able to maintain similar revenues for relatively low risk. With the halt of international travel, price increases also forces most everyone to make their purchases in their respective home countries. Where this is the biggest advantage for companies is in none other than China where its residents are already used to buying at the highest prices and can’t travel outside the country to make luxury purchases elsewhere. The bottom line, in my opinion (based on only cursory research), is that these price hikes will continue so long as China’s consumer market continues to buy luxury products despite price hikes. With the Chinese market making up a third of the luxury industry’s revenues, as long as price hikes don’t result in revenue losses overall, losing customers in other countries is counterintuitively desired because luxury brands by design want to prevent their products from becoming overly distributed to avoid diluting the exclusivity of their brand.



What we can do about it:

This may seem like a lost cause, but 2/3 is still greater than 1/3. If the rest of us can (and actually do) band together and boycott Chanel, LVMH, Kering, and other fashion houses, we actually do have enough power to influence price setting. Louis Vuitton and Gucci have lowered prices on evergreen products in certain countries in the past as a result of economic factors, so it’s not outrageous to think that a boycott could actually work. A boycott by the consumers that constitute two-thirds of their revenues absolutely would send a message to the fashion houses that they’d better stop with the price hikes unless they want to start imagining life with only a third of their current revenues. Trust and believe that those prices will start to come back down REAL QUICK. The REAL question is: Can we get everyone who isn’t geographically inside China to boycott luxury products during the pandemic (and honestly beyond because this is getting ridiculous)? I genuinely would love to hear others’ thoughts on this because if we really could get enough traction to do this, we could actually make this a real initiative. An initiative that thanks to the pandemic, gave rise to a protest in its own right in response to the realization and against the revelation of a shamefully unhealthy over-reliance upon a single country, China, in yet another industry where it “hurts” our own economy. Side note: I put quotation marks around the word hurts because I do realize that this is a first world problem during a global pandemic and other natural disasters, but hey, we’re still allowed to have feelings about this one way or the other. PS. This post is not meant to shame China or its people in any way, but rather the decisions made by company executives of all types and from all countries to rely too heavily upon one country for anything at all, whether it be their total revenues, outsourced labor, or cheap raw materials, etc.
What a wonderful post you made! I completely agree with what you said, however I can’t imagine people boycotting luxury companies due to social media influence, as well as marketing. Personally for myself I’ve decided that my small collection meets all my needs, therefore I don’t think I’ll spend another $6-7k on a bag. But, with all those “limited editions” it’s so easy to fall back into shopping spree. For instance I’m fighting a temptation to get a iridescent ivory handbag - the color is so gorgeous and I know that it might takes yeeears to have another opportunity. Another thing to take into consideration is that for those who are wealthy, couple thousands more or less won’t make a big difference, thus they’ll continue shopping. Although I am frustrated with current prices, decline in quality and in certain fashion houses lack of customer service, I can’t imagine that those houses will be affected by any sort of boycott. And a kind reminder, it is lux goodies we’re talking about, therefore they can do whatever they wanna do, and we all have a choice either to follow their rules or take our money elsewhere.
 
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I don't see price increases having anything to do with the pandemic. Here are my thoughts:

1. A price increase is a normal thing that companies do, to compensate inflation. You have that in everything: tomatoes, toothbrushes, tablets. Yes, some things stay flat or decrease in price, but that's often due to productivity measures, relocations, dwindling demand or technological progress. In 2019 there was a 1.8% inflation in the USA. Now, if you increase something cheap, like pasta by 1.8% you might not even notice the price increase. For a 3000$ handbag that would be 54$ already. And often the inflation is higher than 1.8%.

2. Sought after designers get more expensive: You ever noticed how some contemporary designers are nearly up to luxury designer prices and others are way cheaper, but the quality is about the same or you remember them being on a similar price level before? It's a very natural process that you can ask more for things that are high in demand, and understandably, why would you stay at a 2% margin if you could make 40%. They're businesses after all and not charities.

3. For some companies having high prices is their marketing strategy to provide exclusivity. It's very obvious Chanel wants that and doesn't feel like they're there yet. And it works, their bags are super high in demand, even though or rather due to the regular price increases. I believe that only through this strategy of increasing their prices, they managed to stay current = psychological trick, see 2. we think that they are in high in demand due to the increasing prices, so people buy it.

4. Different price levels in different countries: Please don't neglect customs (or even penalties, see the trade dispute between the USA and the EU, the 25% extra customs on European marmelade or American peanut butter just makes me shake my head), different levels of taxes (general sales tax, luxury tax etc.) as well as other expenses for the companies to meet the legal & commercial requirements to set up permanent establishments or subsidiaries in other countries (I recommend attending a lecture on how to avoid double taxation, very insightful). Now a 30% price difference might not feel like much.

So, what to do if you don't agree with price increases: I don't think it's possible to convince people to boycott luxury because it's expensive. The single most important feature of luxury items is that they are expensive, if they were cheap it wouldn't be luxury any more. And they get away with it, because nobody really NEEDS luxury.
Of course, everyone can decide for themselves if a product is worth buying for the given price. For me, Chanel is no longer in a justifiable price range for their quality, so I don't buy it. Do I like some designs and wish they were cheaper? Yes. Is my life incomplete without a classic flap? Hell no.
 
If I remember Chanel rhetoric right they are saying they are harmonizing global prices. Maybe that I am confusing with some other brand but that would be a valid argument for European price increases. The luxury market and buyers are not anymore ’on old continent (only)’ as you say. It makes sense that the prices are effected. I find it SURPRISING that there still is a major price difference between continents. Not sure if it is onlybdue to demand or also heritage.

That said my unpopular opinion is that Chanel has still space to pump up the price. My second unpopular opinion is that they are a fashion house that mass produce tons of stuff for good return with very little to no exclusivity to ordinary people like me. Maybe there is something special for those that get their hands on some special RTW or the ultra-special Haute Couture.
 
Hi!

Well written, good research - fun hypothetical thesis.

But: price increase = (artificial) "growth" and growth = most important in todays market. I personally don't think it's an overly sustainable strategy, but for now it (still) works.

But don't underestimate where those groups, especially LVMH, make (part of) their money if you play with the hypothetical thought of putting them under pressure by boycotting:

LVMH for example get's "money" from me for stuff as simple as a 40$ bottle of scotch (Glenmorangie, The Lasanta) that I like & buy at a simple/regular grocery store. Same goes for similar priced "cheap" champagnes like Moet, Veuve, Ruinart ... They run a department store in Paris.

Will I stop getting one of my favorite drinks because someone on the internet wants a price to come down? No. No disrespect, but thats what it comes down to at the end of the day. ;)

Look how many brands are supplied by Kering Eyewear "right down" to Puma ...

And I totally agree with what @jade wrote.

The brands need to focus away from China, especially with Hongkong eventually tipping over ... And they will. There is a lot of potential in new/emerging markets.

Kind regards,
Oliver
 
Hi!

Well written, good research - fun hypothetical thesis.

But: price increase = (artificial) "growth" and growth = most important in todays market. I personally don't think it's an overly sustainable strategy, but for now it (still) works.

But don't underestimate where those groups, especially LVMH, make (part of) their money if you play with the hypothetical thought of putting them under pressure by boycotting:

LVMH for example get's "money" from me for stuff as simple as a 40$ bottle of scotch (Glenmorangie, The Lasanta) that I like & buy at a simple/regular grocery store. Same goes for similar priced "cheap" champagnes like Moet, Veuve, Ruinart ... They run a department store in Paris.

Will I stop getting one of my favorite drinks because someone on the internet wants a price to come down? No. No disrespect, but thats what it comes down to at the end of the day. ;)

Look how many brands are supplied by Kering Eyewear "right down" to Puma ...

And I totally agree with what @jade wrote.

The brands need to focus away from China, especially with Hongkong eventually tipping over ... And they will. There is a lot of potential in new/emerging markets.

Kind regards,
Oliver

I need to have a word with you, you need to look into Port Ellen, Laphroiag and such, your single malt taste buds need educating
 
Chanel does not increase prices to counter-act inflation - but to keep the FOMO, thus demand, real. They are trying the Hermes model. It works. They currently focus on China, because this is a market with huge growth potential. People in Europe just aren't at this level of buying at present, or have been for some time. For a while it was all about Russia, now it is China, at some point it will move somewhere else, who knows.

When people start complaining about price increases, the answer is indeed, stop buying. But since this won't happen any time soon, I guess, just live with it. At the same time, there is a secondary/preloved market, where one can find great deals if retail can't be afforded and it has to be a luxury brand.

Chanel in particular is a privately owned business, and its owners can do as they please, without having to answer to particular investor needs (unlike all other main luxury players). They have smartly managed to remain relevant for a very long time (see Celine for instance, which has lost in interest quite a bit in the past few years) and they are benefitting as much as possible.
 
Chanel does not increase prices to counter-act inflation - but to keep the FOMO, thus demand, real. They are trying the Hermes model. It works. They currently focus on China, because this is a market with huge growth potential. People in Europe just aren't at this level of buying at present, or have been for some time. For a while it was all about Russia, now it is China, at some point it will move somewhere else, who knows.

When people start complaining about price increases, the answer is indeed, stop buying. But since this won't happen any time soon, I guess, just live with it. At the same time, there is a secondary/preloved market, where one can find great deals if retail can't be afforded and it has to be a luxury brand.

Chanel in particular is a privately owned business, and its owners can do as they please, without having to answer to particular investor needs (unlike all other main luxury players). They have smartly managed to remain relevant for a very long time (see Celine for instance, which has lost in interest quite a bit in the past few years) and they are benefitting as much as possible.


It is a totally normal thing, even with other items that price difference in different countries happens, before Covid, when i was regularly in the US, I used to buy anything Apple while being in the US, as it was massively cheaper than in Europe (and even here there are differences between the countries), I am in the process of moving away from the UK and I list designer items I do not want to pack up on different websites in different countries, I usually check how much similar items go for and price accordingly, there often is a margin of between 30 and 60% for the same product in the preloved market, of course if I can get more (and we all know that preloved fetches only a fraction of the original price in most cases) I will, it would be crazy not to and nobody would sell an item cheaper than they have to.
 
It is a totally normal thing, even with other items that price difference in different countries happens, before Covid, when i was regularly in the US, I used to buy anything Apple while being in the US, as it was massively cheaper than in Europe (and even here there are differences between the countries), I am in the process of moving away from the UK and I list designer items I do not want to pack up on different websites in different countries, I usually check how much similar items go for and price accordingly, there often is a margin of between 30 and 60% for the same product in the preloved market, of course if I can get more (and we all know that preloved fetches only a fraction of the original price in most cases) I will, it would be crazy not to and nobody would sell an item cheaper than they have to.
sure, ultimately, it is relatively simple market economics - depending on demand, one can determine the price (preloved or retail). Just saying that if somebody is really not able/not willing (that would be me) to pay full retail, the preloved market offers great options.
 
So, what to do if you don't agree with price increases: I don't think it's possible to convince people to boycott luxury because it's expensive. The single most important feature of luxury items is that they are expensive, if they were cheap it wouldn't be luxury any more. And they get away with it, because nobody really NEEDS luxury.
Of course, everyone can decide for themselves if a product is worth buying for the given price. For me, Chanel is no longer in a justifiable price range for their quality, so I don't buy it. Do I like some designs and wish they were cheaper? Yes. Is my life incomplete without a classic flap? Hell no.
+1. i buy what I can afford. I can afford luxury retail prices. But, sometimes for reasons of quality, selections, convenience, cost and bc it’s more sustainable, I buy preloved. I don’t think of luxury RTW or bags as investments; I just buy what I love. I do think that for certain handmade limited quantity luxury items, retails focus on China kind of means it didn’t seem to care as much about growing loyal individual customers like me, so when my SA’s changed careers or retired, I started to shop less at brands like Hermes or Chanel. But, I didn’t stop shopping, I just moved to other brands and categories. Soending time on TPF actually fuels the desire for Chanel, Hermes, VCA, Cartier etc. I might boycott if the Brand was discriminatory or anti environment, as per another tpfer above, but high prices, limited product? It’s their business model. (Apologies if I misconstrued any of the issues. MIL has just been diagnosed with serious medical issue, so I’m distracting myself by Haphazardly surfing TPF).
 
sure, ultimately, it is relatively simple market economics - depending on demand, one can determine the price (preloved or retail). Just saying that if somebody is really not able/not willing (that would be me) to pay full retail, the preloved market offers great options.

With some things it depends, you can actually pay more for preloved due to an item being rare, OH collects guitars, pedals and amps, a lot of them are more expensive 2nd time they get on the market due to being made in a very limited number, we had a guy here who made the most beautiful leather belts and bags, it was his hobby and while the prices were sort of in the mid range of designer (more Fendi than Hermes) his waiting list exceeded 3 years for bags, about 1 year for a belt. It sounds crazy but if you see the items, they are so well made, he would sit for an hour with every customer, just showing her designs and then sketching to adapt the design to the specifics of the customer and then lovingly make every item. It was always a hobby for him, no short cuts. If there was a whisper that somebody might part with an item, or somebody had passed away and the family was willing to sell (happened once in a blue moon) the offers were off the scale. I have a belt OH ordered for me and designed with the guy, it is unfortunately not my taste (men picking for women, errrr) but I can't part with it as the craftsmanship and the work that went in, it is a piece of art, it just totally doesn't suit me.
 
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